Peter Drucker did not believe that technology is inherently predictable. Drucker recognized that predicting specific technological advancements or their consequences with certainty is challenging due to the complexity and rapid pace of technological change. Societal changes, scientific discoveries and unexpected breakthroughs are a few factors that can lend to the unpredictable nature of technology (1969).
In Drucker's view, the focus should be on understanding and managing the impact of technology on organizations and society, rather than attempting to predict specific technological outcomes. This perspective reflects the idea that while technology itself may not be entirely predictable, organizations can cultivate a capacity for innovation, continuous learning, and adaptability to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by technological advancements. He advocated for an adaptive approach, encouraging businesses to be flexible and agile in adapting to technological changes rather than relying on accurate predictions (Drucker, 1969).
There can be strategic processes and tools in place to ensure the agility, innovation, and adaptability of business in the complex landscape of digital transformation, and companies are not left in the dust. The concept of "strategic intent", coined by Hamel and Prahalad in the Harvard Business Review in 2005, is a relevant approach to explore in this context. While strategic intent revolves around management through ambitious goals, it also encompasses an active management process that includes focusing the organization’s attention on the essence of winning, motivating people by communicating the value of the target, leaving room for individual and team contributions, sustaining enthusiasm by providing new operational definitions as circumstances change, and using intent consistently to guide resource allocations.
The article argues that companies are too focused on strategic planning over strategic intent. "Although strategic planning is billed as a way of becoming more future oriented, most managers, when pressed, will admit that their strategic plans reveal more about today's problems than tomorrow's opportunities". With the pace of change accelerating in many industries with unpredictable technologies, strategic intent seems to provide a framework that can implement Drucker's management by objectives in a reality where the predictive horizon becomes shorter and shorter (Hamel & Prahalad, 2005).
References
Drucker, P. F. (1969). Comment: Is Technology Predictable? Technology and Culture, 10(4), 522–527. https://doi.org/10.2307/3101571
Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C. K. (2005, March 7). Strategic intent. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2005/07/strategic-intentLinks to an external site.
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